Tuesday, June 30, 2015

When They Say Yes They Mean Yes . . .

 I remember, not long after the overthrow of the Shah, a demonstrator in Teheran telling a reporter: "Americans are rude people. When they say yes, they mean yes. When they say no, they mean no." 

Different conventions prevail.

Let's see what Yes and No amount to as zero hour approaches with Iran in negotiations about nuclear weapons. Supreme leader Khamenei has been zigging and zagging, yes-ing & no-ing.

Guess that's how they do it in Iran.

Nobody wants war with Iran. It would be a conflagration amounting to World War 2.5, or more. There's no predictable endpoint to such a war. Wars are not only awful in and of themselves but rearrange the world wildly.

And nobody, aside from the Shiite bloc headed by Teheran — Bagdad, Damascus, and Beirut, as represented by Hezbollah — wants Iran to have nuclear weapons.

The Saudis don't at least as much as the Israelis don't.

And nor do we.

I don't think Obama will cave to a deal in which Iran signs Yes, we will have inspections etc., and No, we'll do what we like.

I think, and know I could be way wrong, that Iran will sign off on the basics, and be compelled to mean it.

Nobody wants war with Iran, and Iran does not crave further and strengthened sanctions.

If talks do break down, bad things will happen fast.

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